Signs hint at emerging distress

There are growing indications of a new cycle in the credit market as pressure on borrowers grows and default rates rise.

“We’re at the early innings of a credit distress cycle,” says Charles Peabody, a founding partner and president of independent bank research firm Portales Partners. “People have woken up to the fact that there’s credit stress in private credit,” he says. It’s a theme which much of our April 2025 issue examines in depth.