The law of probabilities

Some improbable events took place in 2011. In our final newsletter of the year, we take a completely unscientific approach to weighing up the probability of certain other significant developments happening in 2012.


1.
Just two years on from the prevailing wisdom that said mega funds were ‘dead’, a private equity firm breaks the record for the largest dedicated private equity real estate fund since records began.
Verdict: Probable (watch The Blackstone Group).

2. China, which so many firms are interested in as a “growth” market, veers from boom to bust and becomes the biggest distressed property market in the world.